Economic revival vital to alliance

日米首脳会談の意義

At a joint press conference following their meeting, Mr. Koizumi said he had explained to Mr. Bush how his administration is trying to solve Japanese banks' nonperforming loans and what measures the government is taking to contain the even trickier issue of deflation. Mr. Koizumi said he assured Mr. Bush that these difficulties will not deter his administration from carrying out structural reforms.

In response to a question that his government appears to have been wavering in its pursuit of structural reform in recent months, Mr. Koizumi emphatically stated that his structural reform policy should not be treated as one of several alternative policy options for his administration. He also declared that his economic and administrative restructuring programs are being steadily implemented.

Citing the structural reforms achieved by both the administrations of British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher and U.S. President Ronald Reagan, Mr. Koizumi expressed confidence that his reform programs would succeed in the end. Mr. Bush was quoted as telling Mr. Koizumi that a strong recovery of Japan's economy was essential to the prosperity and stability of the world. Mr. Bush repeated this statement at the press conference and offered his overall support for the Koizumi reforms.

Reports of their exchange of views during the summit and TV footage of the press conference gave a strong impression that this summit provided Mr. Koizumi with enough leverage to pry open the domestic political and bureaucratic barriers to his structural reforms. Every Japanese citizen who watched the events unfold witnessed the Koizumi structural reforms become an international commitment.

Mr. Bush was obviously acting on the basis of Washington's strategic policy of giving priority to economic security in Asia. Without a revival of the Japanese economy, Asia's economic stability can not be secured even if the bilateral relationship between Japan and the U.S. remains close in other areas. An economically strong Japan is essential not only to the welfare of Asian countries but also to effective bilateral cooperation in the conduct of the U.S.-led global "war" against terrorism.

At the same time, however, it is also true that the Bush administration is not necessarily united in its assessment of the Koizumi government's track record on structural reform. With the U.S. midterm elections scheduled for this fall, according to reports, analysts inside the Bush administration are weighing the wisdom of uncritical support for the Koizumi government's seemingly blind commitment to structural reform. Those reports point to the existence of growing concerns about increasing signs of deflation and the delay in settling Japanese banks' bad-debt problems.

Worsening deflation and the delay in removing the bad-debt hangover are no simple domestic issues. Left unsolved for too long, these problems could seriously affect other major economies, especially through a change in the international flow of money. Behind Mr. Bush's unqualified support for Mr. Koizumi's reform policies seemed to exist a concern that prodding with specific requests at the moment could obstruct the progress of reform. Nonetheless, Washington will find it impossible to continue assuming a wait-and-see posture when an inactive Japanese economy begins affecting other economies.

Despite Mr. Koizumi's declaration at the press conference that structural reforms have been making steady progress, it appears not so many Japanese believe him. As shown by the British and American experiences, the effect of structural reforms on economic performance takes time to show. Despite that fact, however, the antideflation measures the government is expected to adopt this month do not contain any decisive steps.

A failure to carry out structural reform and revive the economy could seriously affect Japan's alliance arrangement with the U.S. Such a development would probably destabilize the entire East Asian region, which contains a state that Mr. Bush has identified as belonging to an "axis of evil." Revival of the Japanese economy is relevant not only to Japan but also to other nations. Mr. Koizumi must make the most of Mr. Bush's cheering in his efforts to revitalize the economy.

The Japan Times: Feb. 19, 2002
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     今回の首脳会談は、改革の取組みにおける政官界の障壁を取り除く力を小泉氏に与えたという印象が強い。国民は小泉改革が国際的な約束になったことを確認した。ブッシュ氏の言動は、アジアの経済的安定を優先する米政府の戦略に基づいたものだった。日本の経済再生は、アジア諸国繁栄のためだけでなく、米国主導のテロとの戦いにおける日米の効果的な協力のためにも不可欠だ。

     しかし小泉氏の改革実行の実績に関し、ブッシュ政権関係者が同じ評価をしているとは限らない。報道によれば米政権の専門家は、中間選挙を今年秋に控え、小泉政権の改革路線を全面的に支持すべきか否かを見極めようとしているというが、これはデフレ進行と銀行の不良債権処理の遅れに対する懸念がある証拠だろう。問題が放置されれば、他の主要国の経済にも深刻な影響を及ぼしかねない。小泉氏の改革政策へのブッシュ氏の強い支持の裏には、今具体的な要求をして日本を刺激すると改革を妨害するかもしれないという懸念があるらしい。

     改革が進行中という小泉首相の発言を信じる国民は多くないだろう。英米の例でも分かるように構造改革の効果が経済に波及するには時間がかかるにもかかわらず、政府のデフレ対策には決定的な施策がない。 　改革と経済再生に失敗すれば、日米の同盟関係に深刻な影響を与える可能性がある。また、ブッシュ大統領言うところの｢悪の枢軸｣に属する国を抱える東アジアの安定が崩れる。日本経済の再生は日本だけでなく他の国々にとっても重要だ。小泉首相はブッシュ大統領の支持を最大限に活用せねばならない。

The Japan Times Weekly
March. 2, 2002
(C) All rights reserved