Feast or famine?

遺伝子組換え食品と飢きん

The United Nations estimates that some 13 million people face starvation in six countries in southern Africa. The World Health Organization has warned that 300,000 people could die in the next few months if they do not get assistance. The United States provides 500,000 tons of food, about half of the region's humanitarian aid. Unfortunately, the U.S. aid contains genetically modified organisms (GMOs) — corn — and African governments are unwilling to accept the foods.

Those governments share the fears of many consumers around the world who wonder about the as-yet unknown health effects of eating such foods. In addition, they fear that the genetically modified foods will be planted rather than eaten, which could wreak havoc on local food production. They worry that GMOs will alter domestic strains, reduce biodiversity and ruin the export prospects of local agricultural producers.

Those fears are real. Shaken by food scares such as mad cow disease, the European Union has banned new biotech crops from other parts of the world for the past three years. The governments are joined by anti-GMO groups, who argue that the U.S. is exploiting the famine to short-circuit debate on such foods and aid their international acceptability. The U.S. government counters that the risks of GMOs are exaggerated. It has pressed the EU to echo its assurances that the food is safe; Brussels has demurred, but its position might yet change.

Compromise solutions are possible. For example, genetically modified corn could be milled to prevent it from being used as seed, which would eliminate concern about its affecting the agricultural gene pool or "contaminating" future exports. Funds could be used to buy local corn or nongenetically modified food. Still, it is likely that some GMO products will eventually be included; the health questions will persist. Ultimately, the solution is more fundamental and requires changes in agricultural policies.

There are two components to southern Africa's famine problem. The first is the capriciousness of nature. Bad weather exacts a regular toll on African agriculture. Climatic change triggered by global warming is expected to continue to alter weather patterns and exacerbate Africa's difficulties.

The real problem, though, is mistaken government policies. Corn production is down 77 percent in Zimbabwe, putting some 6 million lives at risk. That shortfall is the result of the Harare government's policy of taking over white-owned farms. President Robert Mugabe has played the race card to shore up his government, and the result has brought havoc to agricultural production.

Mr. Mugabe's policies are the most egregious mistakes. Long-term trends all converge toward the same ugly outcome: increasing shortages of food. Population growth continues — the number of people on the planet is expected to increase from 6 billion to 9 billion by 2050 — while the amount of arable land decreases. About 11 percent of the world's land is used for agriculture, and although some areas can increase the amount of land under cultivation, many of the most crowded regions, such as South Asia and North Africa, cannot.

Desertification already affects 250 million people and another billion are at risk. Some 20 to 30 percent of irrigated land in the developing world has already been damaged by salinity; 12 million hectares have been removed from production.

These trends can be changed. Developing world governments need to encourage farmers to use more environmentally friendly crops, teach them to use less water-intensive techniques and be more responsible stewards of the soil. Population policies would also help diminish pressures on the land.

Developed countries have their own role to play. They should help developing world farmers adopt techniques and provide biotechnologies that will increase yields and grow more nourishing crops while reducing the impact on the fertility of the land. Just as critical is eliminating trade barriers that keep developing world products from penetrating the markets of advanced nations. Assuring those farmers of more money is the best way of spurring production and averting famine, which grows more threatening each day.

The Japan Times: August 30, 2002
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      アフリカ南部6カ国で1,300万人が飢餓に直面し、援助がなければ今後数カ月で30万人が餓死する恐れがあるという。米国はこの地域に食糧50万トンを提供しているが、これに遺伝子組換え作物(GMO)が含まれている。アフリカ南部各国政府が抱いている恐れは、GMOを含む食品の摂取による健康上の影響と、GMOが国内の農地に植えられた場合の農作物への影響である。

      狂牛病問題で揺れるEUは域外からのGMO輸入を今後3年間禁止した。各国政府と反GMO団体は、米国が飢きんに乗じて論争を避けていると主張し、米国はGMOの危険性が誇張されて伝えられていると反論している。

      妥協的解決策は可能だ。トウモロコシを粉状にして種として使用されるのを防ぎ、援助金で非GMOの食糧を買う。それでもGMO混入の可能性はあり、健康上の懸念は払拭されない。対策として農業政策の変更が必要になる。

      飢きん発生の要因は地球温暖化による気候の変化もあるが、本当の問題は政策の失敗だ。ジンバブエでは白人所有の農地を没収して黒人に再配分する政策が食糧不足の悪化を招いている。人口増加の一方で耕地は減少傾向にある。砂漠化は進行し、かんがい地の一部は塩分過多のため使えない。

      途上国の政府は環境に優しい作物と水の使用量が少ない農法の使用を促進し、人口政策により農地の負担を軽減する必要がある。先進国は途上国に、収穫を増やし、土地の肥沃度を保ちながら栄養に富む作物の栽培ができる技術を教え、農産物貿易の障壁をなくす努力をすべきだ。農業生産の増加を図り飢きんを回避するためには、農業従事者の収入増が一番の策だろう。

The Japan Times Weekly
September 7, 2002
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