Diet turbulence likely in second half

波乱含みの通常国会後半

It comes as a great relief that no financial panic, or "March crisis," occurred at the end of the month when most Japanese companies closed their books for fiscal 2002. The bad news is that the Nikkei stock average tumbled below 8,000 — its lowest fiscal yearend finish in 21 years.

The 2003 financial year is off to a bumpy start. The economy will deteriorate further if the war in Iraq drags on. If that happens, stock prices will probably continue to fall, barring drastic action to support them. Un employment, at a record level, could go up higher. As a result, the government will likely come under pressure to boost spending, its crushing debt burden notwithstanding.

Political prospects are equally uncertain. The outcome of unified local elections this month will affect national politics as well. Mr. Koizumi is fighting an uphill battle in pushing his reform agenda. As president of the Liberal-Democratic Party, the prime minister faces a party leadership election in September.

All this and more makes it likely that the situation in the second half of the Diet session will be turbulent. Normally the governing and opposition parties call a "political truce" in the Diet during this period of local election campaigning. With crises lingering at home and abroad, though, this is certainly no time to sit on the sidelines.

The most crucial issue is how to protect Japan against a foreign military attack. The question most likely will dominate the Diet debates, with the perceived nuclear and missile threats from North Korea. The package on the table consists of three bills, including one that deals specifically with such attacks. A separate bill would revise the law governing the Self-Defense Forces.

The package is an updated version that includes clearer definitions of "military attack situations." It includes measures designed to cope with other threats to national security, such as intrusions by armed spy ships into territorial waters and large-scale acts of terrorism.

The Japanese Communist Party and the Social Democratic Party are against the package on grounds that it would spur the "war-readiness" of the Japan-U.S. alliance and open the way for collective self- defense, which is prohibited by the Constitution. The question is how the Democratic Party of Japan, the largest but divided opposition party, can present a unified position. For the governing coalition, it is important to ensure that the package is thoroughly debated, given the wide divergence in public opinion. Trying to rush the debate on account of the North Korean crisis or the Iraq war could be counterproductive.

Another major issue is the protection of government-held personal data. The revised bill is welcome in that it would ease restrictions on the media. The worry is that it might tighten government control over civic organizations. Also, it makes no mention of the guiding principles that defined the original bill, such as using data for specified purposes only. The updated measure may need a fundamental review.

Regarding the Iraq issue, debate on postwar reconstruction is imperative. The government is reportedly seeking new legislation allowing the SDF to provide medical support, transport goods and supply fuel. The plan, however, is premised on a U.N. mandate for Iraqi reconstruction — which is not assured. For starters, ways of cooperation should be explored within the framework of existing legislation.

The Diet must discuss financial aspects of reconstruction. One view holds that Japan should pay 20 percent of the total cost — the same share as the nation's financial contributions to the United Nations. That is debatable, of course. But a large increase in spending is almost certain. Japan should be prepared to take an active role in rebuilding Iraq. That requires early participation in the planning and formulation of an international reconstruction program.

The Japan Times Weekly
April 12, 2003
(C) All rights reserved

      03年度予算は新年度入り前に成立し、恐れられていた「3月危機」も起きなかった。ただ、東証の日経平均は8,000円を切り21年ぶりの低水準に急落した。

      イラク戦争が長引けば不況は悪化し、思い切った対策が取られなければ株価はさらに低迷、失業率は上昇するだろう。

      政治の見通しも不透明だ。統一地方選挙の結果は国政に大きな影響を与えると予想される。小泉政権の構造改革は思うように進まず、9月には次期首相を選ぶ自民党総裁選が行われる。

      通常国会後半は相当の混乱が予想される。北朝鮮の核、ミサイルの脅威が高まっている折から、国会で最重要の問題は有事関連法案である。現在提出されている法案は武力攻撃対処法案、自衛隊法の一部改正法案を含む。

      共産党、社民党は、有事法制は日米安保体制を強化し、憲法で禁じられている集団的自衛権行使に道を開くとして強く反対している。問題は党内が分裂している野党第1党の民主党が意見を統一できるかどうかだ。

      もうひとつの重要案件は個人情報保護法案だが、問題が多く見直しが必要だろう。

      イラク問題について、政府は戦争終結後、自衛隊による医療援助、物資輸送、燃料補給を可能にする法案の成立を求めているが、この計画には国連の枠組みが必要である。まず、現行法の枠内での協力方法を探るべきである。

      国会はまた、対イラク援助のための財政支出について論議せねばならない。日本は、総援助額の20％（国連分担金の拠出割合に相当）を負担すべきという議論があるが、とにかく多額の支出は避けられない。

      日本はイラク復興に積極的役割を果たすため、早期に国際的復興援助計画の策定に参加する必要がある。