DPJ faces uphill road to power

新民主党の厳しい道

The merger — which formally took effect Sept. 26 — brings to 204 the number of DPJ members in the Diet. Mr. Naoto Kan, head of the DPJ, and Mr. Ichiro Ozawa, former chief of the Liberal Party, expressed confidence that the new party would defeat the LDP in the Lower House election expected in November.

The grand opposition party is preparing to publish a "manifesto" — a set of policy measures it plans to carry out if takes power. Plans in the works call for deep cuts in public works spending and an end to tolls on most highways. The party should conduct a campaign focused on these and other specific issues.

At the same time, the DPJ needs to address its problems. One is a lack of unity. The inclusion of the Liberal Party may make it more difficult to forge a consensus on security and defense policy. Another problem is the weakness of its local support networks. Campaign cooperation with the Social Democratic Party may help.

The merger is meant to maximize voter support for the DPJ now that a November election is a near certainty. But it is the LDP that is stealing the show. Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi has appointed Mr. Shinzo Abe, a popular politician, as the party's secretary-general. Mr. Koizumi has shuffled his Cabinet to push his reform agenda.

In the latest Kyodo News poll, the approval rating for the Koizumi administration increased to 67 percent, and 60 percent welcomed the Abe appointment. By contrast, 26 percent held "expectations" for the new DPJ while 36 percent did not. Significantly, 37 percent would not say, suggesting that they are ambivalent about the merger. The DPJ needs to win over these undecided voters.

The poll indicates that some of those who once supported the Liberal Party are going for the LDP, rather than the DPJ. Although Liberal Party members have joined the DPJ, not a few voters appear to have doubts about a merger with a party that includes former members of the defunct Japan Socialist Party. There are signs that the LDP is gaining sympathy from uncommitted voters in urban areas where the DPJ is said to enjoy solid support.

Mr. Ozawa has said the merger will have a synergistic effect, creating a new wave of voter enthusiasm for the DPJ, if it presents a clear-cut policy program that appeals to people from broad walks of life.

In its draft manifesto, the DPJ says all members will "unite to carry out the promises with sincerity." That is laudable, but not sufficient. Unity is essential, all the more because the party includes former Liberal Party members, including Mr. Ozawa, who do not always see eye to eye with DPJ old-timers on security and defense issues. So it is essential to draw up a coherent, easy-to-understand platform.

Public image is a critical factor in an election. A former health minister, Mr. Kan took a leadership role in dealing with AIDS cases caused by tainted blood supplies. He is a good orator. Mr. Ozawa, however, seems to have an image problem.

Mr. Ozawa, a former LDP heavyweight, proved himself to be a strong leader when he launched Shinshinto (New Frontier Party), a giant party of 214 members, in 1994. But his aggressive and unilateral ways of doing things alienated many of his friends and allies, leading to the breakup of the party in 1998.

The driving force behind the Liberal Party, which had 30 members before the merger, was Mr. Ozawa's charismatic personality. Meanwhile, the DPJ lacked a broad base of voter support. To compete with the LDP, the DPJ needs to expand and bolster its networks throughout the country. A larger and stronger opposition party is a sine qua non for a two-party system, the ultimate goal of Japan's fragmented political world.

The Japan Times Weekly
Oct. 4, 2003
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      民主党の議員数は204人となり、菅新党代表と小沢前自由党党首は総選挙で自民党に勝利する自信を表明している。

      民主党が準備中のマニフェスト（政権公約）は、公共投資の大幅削減、高速道路の無料化などを約束している。選挙運動ではこれらの具体的問題に焦点をあてるべきだ。

      自由党との合併で、民主党は安保、防衛問題について党内の意志の統一が困難になる可能性がある。地方の支持基盤が弱いことも問題だが、社民党との選挙協力でこの問題の解決を図るのも一法である。

      総選挙が迫るなかで、国民の注目を集めているのは民主党よりも自民党である。小泉首相は内閣改造を行い、国民に人気のある安倍晋三氏を党幹事長に任命した。

      共同通信の調査によれば、回答者の67％が小泉内閣を支持、60%が安倍氏の人事を歓迎している。一方、26%が新民主党に期待、36%は期待せず、37%は分からないという結果になった。民主党が勝利するためには浮動票を取り込むことが必要だ

      自由党の元支持者は民主党よりも自民党を支持する傾向が見られる。元社会党の議員を含む民主党との合併に疑問を持つ向きが多いようだ。

      小沢氏は、新党が国民の各層に訴える具体的政権公約を提示すれば、新たな支持を獲得できるという。

      マニフェスト草案によると、党所属議員は公約を誠実に実現するために団結するという。これは立派だが十分ではない。筋の通った、分かりやすい公約を作る必要がある。

      自民党と政権を争うには、民主党は全国的支持基盤を強化せねばならない。二大政党制確立には強力な野党が絶対必要だ。