Asia's first tripartite declaration

日中韓共同宣言

Encouragingly, the leaders agreed to set up a joint committee that will "study, plan, coordinate and monitor the cooperation activities," and will submit progress reports to future summits.

The joint statement reaffirms that the three nations are committed to the peaceful resolution of the North Korean nuclear crisis and the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. Significantly, the document does not mention North Korea, indicating a desire to avoid provoking Pyongyang at a time when behind-the-scenes negotiations are under way to resume six-party talks in Beijing.

The statement includes no explicit reference to the abduction of Japanese nationals by North Korean agents in the 1970s and 1980s. This may come as a disappointment to many Japanese, but it is understood that this issue is incorporated in the phrase "addressing all concerns of the parties."

China is gaining importance as an interlocutor with North Korea. In Bali, Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi and South Korean President Roh Moon Hyun reportedly asked Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao to act as a "constructive party" in resuming six-party talks at an early date. U.S. President George W. Bush is counting on Beijing as the host.

But North Korea has refused to rejoin the talks since it attended the first round in August. Pyongyang has said the country has completed reprocessing spent fuel rods and restarted work toward building a nuclear reactor — repeating its position that North Korea must have a nuclear deterrent force for self-defense because the United States has not changed its hostile policy.

North Korean adamancy seems to stem from its failure to strike a deal at the Beijing talks — a deal aimed at extracting a U.S. security guarantee under a policy of nuclear brinkmanship. The irony is that North Korea succeeded only in isolating itself, rather than the United States, as all of the other parties, including China and Russia, agreed to seek a nuclear-free Korean Peninsula.

It appears that relations between China and North Korea are beginning to change. The longtime allies have a treaty of mutual assistance that says, in effect, that if one side is attacked the other will provide military help. Reportedly, though, Pyongyang has reacted negatively to Beijing's desire to amend the pact.

North Korea can take a lesson from its past relations with the Soviet Union. Immediately after the end of the Cold War, Pyongyang and Moscow quarreled over changing their alliance, but in due course they mended fences. Given that China is a principal source of oil and food to North Korea, ties between the two nations can improve over time.

It is likely that recent moves by North Korea are meant to improve its bargaining position with the United States. If so, Pyongyang can be expected to return to the six-way forum. But if the next round is to produce results, Japan and South Korea, along with the United States, will need to work out a "road map" that describes progress markers.

Prospects for dialogue depend on how the United States moves in the months ahead. The Bush administration may find it difficult to map out a new Korea policy as the presidential election approaches. Campaign exigencies could push bilateral talks further into the distance.

Tokyo and Seoul, faced with U.S. requests for troop dispatches to Iraq, are experiencing some difficulty in relations with Washington. However, spade work is under way with an eye to an eventual resumption of the Beijing talks. Thus Japan and South Korea should seize the opportunity and work on the U.S. administration to start making specific efforts toward the peaceful resolution of the nuclear standoff.

China projected a strong sense of presence during the ASEAN talks. The test for Prime Minister Koizumi is to develop future-oriented economic and security relations with China. Settling negative legacies of the past, such as damage from poison-gas munitions left by the Imperial Japanese Army in that country, should be a first step in this direction.

The Japan Times Weekly
Oct. 18, 2003
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      宣言はまた、北朝鮮の核問題の平和的解決、朝鮮半島の非核化を求める方針を確認した。日本人拉致問題については具体的に言及しなかったが、「おのおののすべての懸念に対処する」と間接的に触れた。

      会談で、小泉首相と盧武鉉・韓国大統領は中国の温家宝首相に対し、北朝鮮問題に関する6ヵ国協議の再開について仲介努力を求めた。北朝鮮は6ヵ国協議に参加することを拒否している。

      中国と北朝鮮の相互援助条約には、一方の国が攻撃を受けた場合に他方が軍事援助を行う規定があるが、北朝鮮は中国の条約改定案に否定的な立場を取っている。

      北朝鮮が、最近の動きを通じ、対米交渉で有利な立場に立とうとしているのであれば、6ヵ国協議に復帰する可能性がある。

      次回の6ヵ国協議が成果を出すためには、日米韓が協力して北朝鮮問題解決の「ロードマップ」を作成する必要がある。

      イラクへの派兵問題で日米、米韓関係に多少問題が起きているが、6ヵ国協議の再開に向けて現在努力が続けられている。

      小泉首相に求められるのは、未来志向の対中経済、安保関係を築くことである。中国との負の遺産問題の解決、例えば日本軍が残した毒ガス弾の処理はそのための第一歩になるだろう。