Tread carefully in Iraq

イラク問題に慎重な対応を

Whether those diplomats were the targets of terrorists has yet to be confirmed. But Chief Cabinet Secretary Yasuo Fukuda on Nov. 30 voiced his strong suspicions that the killings were committed by terrorists. Seven Spanish intelligence agents were slain Nov. 29 when guerrillas ambushed their cars south of Baghdad. The nature and timing of the two attacks suggest an increase in coordinated terrorist activities.

Despite growing security concerns in the wake of the diplomats' deaths, the Japanese government has repeated its commitment to Iraq's reconstruction on the basis of the priority Tokyo places on its ties with the United States.

Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi said: "There will be no change in Japan's policy of providing humanitarian and reconstruction assistance in Iraq by sending people, regardless of whether they are Self-Defense Forces troops, civilians or government officials . . . Japan should not be intimidated by terrorism."

Obviously Japan is among the terrorists' purported targets. Last month, a group linked to al-Qaeda warned in a taped message that Tokyo would be attacked if Japan sent troops to Iraq. Two days later, an unidentified man fired gunshots at the Japanese Embassy in Baghdad. That was followed by the fatal attacks Nov. 29.

The situation in Iraq has reached its grimmest point since U.S. President George W. Bush declared that major combat operations were over in May. Since late October there has been a series of terrorist and guerrilla acts targeting U.S. forces, other allied troops and the local headquarters of international organizations, resulting in a large number of deaths.

These terrorist attacks are believed to be the work of fighters loyal to deposed President Saddam Hussein and international terrorist groups that have infiltrated from other countries. They are strengthening their offensives qualitatively and quantitatively, and routinely use shoulder-fired surface-to-air missiles and plastic explosives.

The government should get a firm understanding of this situation and tread carefully. Terrorist groups and guerrilla units in Iraq seem to have started to engage in coordinated tactics in an organized manner that was not evident before. The emerging picture is a country sinking rapidly into a quagmire of terrorism, with occupation forces pursuing an "invisible" enemy.

Most terrorist attacks have taken place in the "Sunni Triangle," an area linking the three main cities where Sunni Muslim forces are strongest: Baghdad, Tikrit to the north (Saddam's birthplace) and Fallujah to the west. It seems certain that the terrorist and guerrilla acts are being carried out by residual forces of the former regime and foreign insurgents — perhaps al-Qaeda — either separately or cooperatively.

Another worrying development is that Moqtada Sadr, a leading young Shiite cleric who previously had good relations with the United States, has made clear his anti-American position. Some members of the Sadr faction have voiced their opposition to the stationing of the SDF in Iraq. A situation in which the Shiite Muslims — who account for more than 60 percent of the Iraqi population — go over to the enemy must be avoided. It cannot be said that the Kurdish region in the north of the country is without public security problems, either.

It is hoped that Washington's recent shift in its Iraq occupation policy — which calls for a speedier transfer of power to the Iraqis — will improve security and stop terrorism in its tracks. The current provisional government in Iraq, which is supported by around 130,000 U.S. troops, must be dismantled as soon as possible so that sovereignty can be transferred to the Iraqi people.

For its part, Japan should not yield to the threat of terrorism in its pursuit of playing a role in Iraq's reconstruction. But this does not mean that the government should hastily send SDF troops with the scope of their activities narrowed by constitutional restraints.

The Japan Times Weekly
Dec. 13, 2003
(C) All rights reserved

      事件後も、日本政府は対米協調方針に基づき、対イラク復興援助を行う決意を強調している。

      小泉首相は「イラクに対し、人道援助、復興援助を行う方針には変わりはない。日本はテロに屈しない」と述べた。

      日本がテロリストの標的になっているのは明らかだ。先月、アルカイダの関連組織は、日本がイラクに派兵すれば、東京が攻撃目標になると脅迫した。その2日後には、何者かがバグダッドの日本大使館に発砲した。

      イラクの治安情勢は、ブッシュ米大統領が5月に大規模戦闘の終結を宣言して以来、最悪になっている。10月以降、米軍、同盟国軍、国際機関に対しテロ、ゲリラ攻撃が仕掛けられ、多数の死者が出ている。これらの攻撃にはフセイン政権の残党、国際テロ組織が関与していると思われる。

      政府は情勢を十分に把握し、慎重に対応せねばならない。イラクはテロの泥沼にはまり、占領軍は｢見えない敵｣と戦っている。

      憂慮されることは、以前親米的だったイスラム教シーア派の指導者、ムクタダ・サドル師が反米的立場に変わったことだ。サドル派の一部は日本の自衛隊派遣に反対しているという。イラク人口の60％を占めるといわれるシーア派を敵に回すことは避けたい。

ブッシュ政権はイラク政策を転換し、迅速にイラク国民へ権力委譲をしようとしているが、これで治安情勢がよくなりテロがなくなることが望ましい。

日本は、テロに屈することなく、イラク復興に積極的な役割を果たすことを目標とすべきだ。しかし、活動を憲法で制約されている自衛隊の派遣は急ぐべきではない。