Mr. Wen goes to Washington

温家宝首相の訪米

Mr. Bush has been criticized for his comments on Taiwan, which suggested to some that he was trading support of democratic values for better relations with China. The biggest loser, though, is likely to be Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian, who made Taiwan a focal point during Mr. Wen's visit to Washington.

Mr. Wen's visit was the first of China's new generation of leaders to visit the United States. The contrast with the old guard was readily apparent. Like his predecessors, Mr. Wen played up cooperation between Washington and Beijing while placing less emphasis on contentious issues, such as trade, in the bilateral relationship. His demeanor provided a glimpse of a new China. His frank comments, sense of humor and readiness to engage his hosts apparently made a powerful impression.

Yet when Mr. Wen's colleagues assess the visit, they will not focus on the good feelings. Rather, they will point to Mr. Bush's comment that the United States remains committed to a one-China policy and opposes "any unilateral decision by either China or Taiwan to change the status quo." In fact, that remark only repeated long-standing U.S. policy.

But Chinese leaders will take note of Mr. Bush's next comment, which referred to Mr. Chen's call for a referendum in Taiwan during the next election: "The comments and actions made by the leader of Taiwan indicate that he may be willing to make decisions unilaterally to change the status quo, which we oppose." The readiness to identify Mr. Chen as a source of trouble and "the leader of Taiwan" — a formulation that the Chinese prefer to "president of Taiwan" — was music to Beijing's ears.

U.S. officials have rightly noted that calls for restraint in Taipei do not mean that the United States is giving China a green light to threaten the island. Washington's support for "one China" has always co-existed with the Taiwan Relations Act, which commits the United States to ensure that Taiwan has the means to defend itself.

The seeming consistency of the U.S. position has not spared Mr. Bush from intense criticism at home. The Washington Post said the president had "kowtowed" to China, essentially placing America on the side of dictators who promise war rather than with the democrats whose only threat is through the ballot box. While this comment misses important elements of the Taiwan-China dynamic, it is understandable given Mr. Bush's uncompromising call for support of democracy worldwide in a foreign policy speech a month ago.

Mr. Bush is learning that foreign policy is never black and white. He may support democracy in Taiwan, but he must work with China to achieve vital national objectives. The list of the two countries' shared interests is long: peacefully solving the North Korean nuclear crisis, combating terrorism, securing peace and stability in Iraq and Afghanistan, as well as promoting and expanding trade and economic relations, to name the most immediate.

That does not mean that Mr. Bush is prepared to "trade" Taiwan for other U.S. priorities. It does mean that the United States will object to being drawn into the island's domestic politics — which is what appears to be happening. Mr. Chen has called for a referendum on China's missile threat to score political points in the runup to the March ballot. He is hoping that Beijing will overreact as in the past, firing up the island's democrats and nationalists, because that formula won him election in 2000.

Beijing appears to have learned its lesson, however. It has refrained from taking the bait and pressured the United States to restrain Taipei. The results of that effort were on display in Washington. While all states in the region applaud Mr. Bush's call for restraint and share his concern about cross-Strait tension, they need to be worried about provocations. Mr. Chen is in a tight election race, with four months before the vote. Even Chinese smiles are likely to be considerably tighter during that time.

The Japan Times Weekly
Dec. 20, 2003
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      大統領は米国内で、対中関係改善を急ぎ、台湾の民主主義志向を無視したとして批判された。しかし、さらに苦境に立っているのは台湾の陳水扁総統であろう。

      中国新世代の指導者として初の米国訪問をした温家宝首相は、対米協調を重視し、貿易などの2国間の摩擦にはあまり触れなかった。首相の率直な発言、ユーモア、友好的態度は好印象を残した。

      ブッシュ大統領は首脳会談で、台湾の陳水扁総統の住民投票実施計画について「現状を一方的に変更する決定に反対する」と述べた。しかし、米国は「一つの中国」体制を支持しながら、台湾関係法の下で台湾に自衛の武器を供給している。

      ワシントンポスト紙は、ブッシュ大統領を中国にへつらっていると批判した。世界の民主体制を強力に支持しながら独裁体制と友好を進める大統領の矛盾に対する批判は理解できる。

      だが、ブッシュ政権は台湾を支持する一方で国益のため中国と協調しなければならない。例えば、北朝鮮の核問題、対テロ戦争、イラク、アフガニスタンの平和と安定、貿易・経済関係の改善などで米中は協力が必要だ。

      米国は台湾の政治問題に引きずりこまれないようにしなければならない。陳水扁氏は来年3月の総統選に関連して、中国のミサイルの脅威について住民投票を行うという。中国がこれに過剰反応すれば、台湾の民主派、独立派が騒ぎ出して、陳水扁氏が総統選で有利になるだろう。

      中国は台湾の挑発に乗らず、米国に対し台湾を抑えるよう求めた。アジア各国が台湾海峡をめぐる緊張に神経をとがらせているなかで、台中の相互挑発が憂慮される。総統選は4ヵ月後に迫り、台中間の緊張が続く。