Simplistic view in a complex
(From The Japan Times Nov. 22 issue)

外交・防衛における首相の安易な考え

    After the summit, Mr. Koizumi said: "The United States remains the most indispensable ally to Japan. And the better our bilateral relations are, the easier it will be for us to establish better relations with China and neighboring countries, and with other countries in the world."

    He added: "There is no such a thing as a Japan-U.S. relationship that's too close. Some people maintain that maybe we should pay more attention to other issues, that it would probably better serve Japan's interests to strengthen relationships with other countries as well. But I do not side with such views. The closer, more intimate the Japan-U.S. relationship is, the easier it will be for us to behave and establish better relations with China, South Korea and other nations in Asia."

    Japan's relations with neighboring countries, especially China and South Korea, have deteriorated due to Mr. Koizumi's repeated visits to Yasukuni Shrine, the memorial that served as a spiritual vehicle of mobilization for Japan's war efforts in the 1930s and '40s. It would not be surprising, therefore, if neighboring countries took his statement as one-sided or even confrontational. For what he said was tantamount to admitting his unwillingness to take the initiative in efforts to mend the soured relations between Japan and its neighbors.

    Mr. Koizumi fails to explain how and why strengthening relations between Japan and the United States will lead to the resolution of issues between Japan and neighboring countries. Does he expect those nations to suddenly soften their attitude and make diplomatic concessions once they sense a strengthening relationship between the world's only superpower and an economic power, which is Japan?

    More likely, Japan's neighbors will harden their attitude toward Japan. At the very least, they will coordinate their positions as a foil to Japan, as in the Nov. 16 agreement between Chinese President Hu Jintao and South Korean President Roh Moo Hyun in Pusan, the venue of Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation leaders' meeting. The agreement asserted that correct historical perceptions are essential for development and growth in Northeast Asia. This was an apparent reference to Mr. Koizumi's Yasukuni visits and the revisionist views of modern history that are becoming popular in some quarters of Japan.

    Clearly, one reason that Mr. Bush is placing so much importance on the strengthened U.S.-Japan relationship is to check China, which is rising economically and militarily, and to deal with contingencies involving the Taiwan Strait and the Korean Peninsula. In his speech in Kyoto, Mr. Bush said, "The alliance you have made with the United States is the pillar of stability and security of the region — and a source of confidence in Asia's future."

    It is apparent that the United States regards turbulence caused by Japan and its neighbors as a hindrance to attaining American strategic goals in the region. The statement Mr. Bush made during an interview with Japanese media on Nov. 8 should be viewed as an expression of his concern about the strains between Japan, on one hand, and China and South Korea, on the other. When asked about the deteriorating relationship between Japan and China, in particular, Mr. Bush said, "It seems like a proper role for me to remind our friends in the region that it takes work to overcome the past. But overcoming the past is necessary to have a bright future."

    In Kyoto, Mr. Koizumi also made clear that Japan will do its utmost to carry out the recently announced transformation of U.S. forces in Japan. Referring to opponents of the plan, including the local people and governments most affected by it, he said, "In order to be able to benefit from safety and peace, we must pay a certain cost. And that is what security is all about."

    Mr. Koizumi has put himself in a difficult spot. If he cannot gain understanding at the local level, the plan will stall, and Japan's relations with the United States could thus weaken. If the Koizumi government imposes the plan, it may only deepen local-area resentment against his government and the U.S. administration.

The Japan Times Weekly
Nov. 26, 2005
(C) All rights reserved

    会談後、首相は「日米関係が緊密であればあるほど、中国、韓国をはじめ世界各国とよい関係を築くことができる」と述べた。しかし、日中・日韓関係悪化の原因は、日本の軍国主義の象徴だった靖国神社への首相の度重なる参拝である。

    首相は事実上、両国に対する関係改善の努力を放棄しており、中国、韓国が彼の発言を一方的、敵対的と受け取っても不思議ではない。

    なぜ日米同盟の強化が対中、対韓問題解決につながるのか、首相は説明していない。解決どころか、中国、韓国は態度を硬化させる可能性がある。

    実際、16日に胡錦涛中国主席と盧武鉉韓国大統領は、韓国・釜山のAPEC首脳会議に平行して開かれた会談で「正しい歴史認識」が北東アジアの発展に必要であると主張した。

    ブッシュ大統領が日米同盟の強化を強調するのは、経済、軍事面で台頭する中国を抑制し、台湾海峡、朝鮮半島をめぐる緊急事態に対応することを考えてのことであろう。

    米は、日本と隣国の紛争が、アジアにおける米の戦略的目標の達成の妨げになると見ている。ブッシュ大統領は8日の記者会見で、「過去の問題を克服するのは容易でないが、明るい将来のためにはそれが必要だ」と述べている。

    また首相は同首脳会談で、「政府は在日米軍の再編について最善を尽くす。安全と平和のためには対価を支払わねばならない」と主張した。

    しかし地方レベルで再編計画に理解が得られなければ、計画は頓挫し、日米関係も損なわれる。計画を強行すれば、政府、米政権に対する地方レベルの反発が強くなるだろう。首相はこの問題においても自らを難しい立場に置いてしまったようだ。