Reaction to a reckless action
(From The Japan Times July 7 issue)

北朝鮮の無謀なミサイル発射

    North Korea cannot justify firing so many missiles. By showing off its missile capabilities, though, it probably hopes to coax the United States into bilateral talks with it on matters such as its nuclear weapons program and the financial sanctions that the United States has imposed on it. But it is clear that such adventurism won't work, since the missile launches have only prompted Washington and other nations to move to penalize North Korea.

    The missile tests make it more difficult for Japan and North Korea to resume bilateral talks aimed at eventually normalizing the two countries' relations. Thus it is all the more important that Japan tries to revive the six-party talks on the nuclear issue, which have been stalled since last November — when Pyongyang cited U.S. financial sanctions for refusing to resume them.

    Japan reacted quickly to the missile tests.

    Taking the position that they violated the September 2002 joint Pyongyang Declaration, in which North Korea agreed to continue a moratorium on missile launches, Japan imposed a set of sanctions, including a half-year ban on the entry into Japanese ports of the Mangyongbong-92 ferry, the only direct passenger link between the two countries, plus prohibitions on North Korean officials and chartered flights entering Japan. Japan may even curb the flow of foreign currencies into North Korea via financial institutions operating in Japan.

    Chief Cabinet Secretary Shinzo Abe correctly observed that North Korea's test-firing of the missiles "is a grave issue with regard not only to Japan's security but to peace and stability for the international community and nonproliferation regime (for nuclear weapons)."

    The missile tests this time came almost eight years after North Korea fired a Taepodong-1 missile, part of which flew over Japan and fell into the Pacific Ocean.

    On July 5, North Korea launched six missiles from around 3:30 a.m. to 8:20 a.m., followed by the seventh around 5:20 p.m. Within about 10 minutes of firing, each missile landed in the Sea of Japan, 530 km to 800 km north-northwest of Niigata Prefecture.

    The third missile, launched around 5 a.m., is believed to have been a Taepodong-2 long-range missile reportedly capable of reaching Alaska. It failed after about 40 seconds in flight. The other missiles were Scud-C missiles with a range of several hundred kilometers and Rodong medium-range missiles with a range of about 1,300 km.

    South Korea, which has pushed rapprochement with the North, condemned Pyongyang's action. Russia joined in the criticism, saying the missile firings complicated the situation surrounding North Korea's nuclear program. China declined comment at first, but said later it was watching the situation closely and urged the countries concerned to remain coolheaded.

    The United States called the test-firings on the Fourth of July "provocative behavior" and a sign of "defiance of the international community." It said, however, that the missiles did not pose any threat, apparently because the Taepodong-2 missile failed and the other missiles' ranges were relatively short. But this doesn't mean an easy time awaits North Korea.

    The United States will not resort to military action but seek to do its utmost through diplomacy to counter Pyongyang's moves. It has already started talks with Japan, China, Russia and South Korea.

    The missile tests are likely to affect public opinion in South Korea, and Seoul may opt to curb the country's massive investment in the North as well as humanitarian aid.

    At the request of Japan, the United Nations Security Council has begun to debate what measures should be taken against North Korea. Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi and U.S. President George W. Bush have agreed to cooperate in adopting a tough resolution against North Korea.

    When the Taepodong-1 missile was launched over Japan into the Pacific Ocean in August 1998, the Security Council ended up issuing a press statement two weeks after the launch because of Chinese opposition to stronger action. This time it is hoped that China, which has chaired the six-nation talks and can exert influence in prodding North Korea back to the table, will act responsibly.

    North Korea's missile firings challenge the international community. They also offer a chance to join hands in bringing the country back to the six-nation talks, although the parties concerned must move cautiously to avoid increasing tension.

The Japan Times Weekly: July 15, 2006
(C) All rights reserved

    ミサイル発射は、将来的日朝間の関係正常化に関する協議再開にも障害を来した。そこで、日本が先頭に立って核開発問題に関する6ヵ国協議を再開することが重要になる。北朝鮮は、昨年11月以来、米国による金融制裁を理由に6ヵ国協議に出席を拒否している。

    北朝鮮がミサイル発射モラトリアム継続を約束した日朝平壌共同宣言（02年9月）に今回のミサイル発射が違反しているとして日本は、北朝鮮の貨客船「万景峰92」の6ヵ月間日本入港禁止などの制裁措置を即座に発表した。

    3回目に発射されたミサイルは、米アラスカ州を射程範囲に含むテポドン2号だったと見られるが、発射後40秒で落下した。他は射程範囲数百キロのスカッド-C、1300キロのノドンだった。

    韓国、ロシアは北朝鮮のミサイル発射を非難し、中国は最初コメントを拒否したが、後に情勢を注視するとして、関係各国に冷静な対応を呼びかけた。

    米国は、米独立記念日に合わせたミサイル発射を、国際社会を無視した挑戦的行為と非難しながら、テポドンの発射は失敗し、他のミサイルは射程距離が短く、脅威にはならないと論じた。

    日本の提案で、国連安保理は北朝鮮への対応を協議している。小泉首相とブッシュ米大統領は、北朝鮮に対する強硬決議案採択に向け協力することで合意した。

    1998年に、北朝鮮が発射したテポドン1号が日本を飛び越えて、太平洋に着弾した時、国連安保理は、対北朝鮮強硬措置に対する中国の反対のため、問題について声明を発表するにとどめた。しかし北朝鮮に対する影響力を有し、今回6ヵ国協議の議長でもある中国には、責任ある行動をとることが求められている。

    ミサイル発射は関係諸国が連携して北朝鮮を6ヵ国協議に復帰させるチャンスでもあるが、諸国は緊張を高めないよう慎重に行動することが求められる。