Strategy for the Middle East
(From The Japan Times May 8 issue)

新たな中東戦略構築へ向けて

    With Middle East states providing some 90 percent of Japan's crude-oil imports — and the countries he visited accounting for 70 percent of the total — the need for good relations with his hosts is plain. But Mr. Abe laid out a much wider strategic rationale for his trip in remarks before his departure, which he repeated at his last stop in Cairo. Both times, he explained that "the peace and stability of the Middle East is essential for the peace and prosperity of the world." Desiring to contribute to that stability, "my nation will become actively involved in the area, building a multi-layered relationship and a new age for both Japan and the Middle East."

    Although rich now, the countries of the Persian Gulf know that their future depends on development so that they have economic options when the oil runs low. Japan has technology that can play a critical role in laying a foundation for development, as well as a history of success. These countries are too rich to receive official development assistance, the traditional tool Tokyo uses to broaden relations. Thus, Mr. Abe was accompanied by some 180 business executives, a coterie that included such prominent names as Nippon Keidanren Chairman Fujio Mitarai, Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Chairman Shigemitsu Miki, Sony Corp. Chief Corporate Adviser Nobuyuki Idei, and Nippon Oil Corp. Board Chairman Fumiaki Watari. Their presence signaled Japan's seriousness to develop new types of relations.

    The key is building long-term relationships. To that end, Mr. Abe and Qatari Emir Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani announced an agreement to launch unofficial talks to start negotiations on a bilateral investment treaty and to begin work on a free-trade agreement between Japan and the members of the Gulf Cooperation Council — Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Bahrain and Oman. They also agreed that their countries would set up a joint economic ministerial committee to strengthen bilateral economic relations. The committee would meet annually to discuss measures to improve the investment and business environments and other core concerns, and to promote bilateral cooperation to ensure a stable energy supply.

    At his first stop, Mr. Abe offered his Saudi Arabian hosts the free use of the oil reserve base in Okinawa to store oil, which holds over 5 million kiloliters of crude. The deal offers Saudi Arabia a chance to cut the cost of shipping oil to Asia and the West Coast of the United States. If both countries agree, Japan would be able to buy the stored oil on a priority basis in time of emergency. Not only does this move secure Japanese needs in the event of an emergency, but the oil belongs to Saudi Arabia; attacking the facilities would be considered an attack on the country and that might alter any potential adversary's calculations.

    Meanwhile, the Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC) has agreed to loan Abu Dhabi's state-run petroleum company $1 billion on condition that it guarantee crude oil to Japan. This is one of JBIC's largest loans and the first accepted by the recipient which, because of its wealth and reluctance to open its books to foreign eyes, has shied away from such agreements.

    Traditionally, Japanese governments have relied on bilateral agreements to secure energy supplies. This administration, like its predecessor, understands that such a strategy does not match its international ambitions. Japan must look at the big picture and think strategically.

    That means working to create an environment of peace and stability. This thinking underlies the determination to send Self-Defense Forces to Iraq for post-conflict reconstruction. Mr. Abe visited Ali Al Salem Air Base in Kuwait, where Air SDF personnel are stationed, the first visit by a prime minister to an SDF unit in connection with the Iraq support mission. It motivated Japan's decision to host four-way talks in March on economic opportunities for Israelis and Palestinians.

    Tokyo has long believed that it can serve as an effective broker in that dispute: It does not have the U.S. baggage and it can use its wealth and knowhow to prod the economic development that must be the foundation of any enduring peace. Noticeably absent was any mention of values and democracy, a recent pillar of Japanese foreign policy. Reconciling Japan's "value-based diplomacy" with its more unabashed strategic interests is another challenge for Tokyo as it assumes a higher international profile.

The Japan Times Weekly: May 12, 2007
(C) All rights reserved

    湾岸諸国は富裕国だが、将来の開発に日本の技術を必要としている。今回の訪問では、日本経団連、三菱東京UFJ銀行、ソニー、日本石油などの指導者、経営陣を含むミッションが首相に同行、中東新時代構築に熱意を見せた。

    首相とカタールのハマド首長は、2国間の投資協定と、日本と湾岸協力会議（6ヵ国）間の自由貿易協定について協議を開始することに合意した。

    サウジアラビアで首相は、沖縄の原油備蓄基地の一部をサウジ石油企業に提供することを提案した。これで、サウジ側はアジア諸国、米西海岸への原油輸送コストを削減でき、日本側は、緊急時に備蓄原油を優先的に購入できる。

    また、国際協力銀行はアブダビの国営石油企業に対し、日本へ原油供給を保証するという条件で10億ドルの融資に応じることになった。

    日本政府はこれまで、エネルギー供給確保について2国間協定に依存してきたが、今後は大局的観点に立って戦略を考えねばならない。

    日本政府は、中東紛争の仲介役として、重要な役割を果たすことができる。米国に関係なく、潤沢な資金と先進技術を利用して、平和の基礎となる経済開発を推進することができる。

    首相は今回の訪問中に、最近の日本外交の柱である価値観、民主主義という言葉は使わなかった。「価値観に基づく外交」を国の戦略的利益と合致させることが、国際社会でより重要な役割を担うことを目指す日本にとって今後の課題になる。