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An economic and fiscal reform plan for 2007 has been approved by the government, setting the basis for compiling the fiscal 2008 budget. It encompasses a variety of policy measures that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's administration thinks are necessary to ensure economic growth and financial reconstruction. But the plan lacks focus. A long-term strategy is needed to tackle big issues such as restoring financial health to the central as well as local governments, narrowing the economic gaps between urban and rural areas, and stabilizing the social welfare system, which is suffering from the graying of the nation's population.
Apparently conscious of attracting votes in July's Upper House election, the government included a wide range of items in the re-form plan.
For example, the plan says measures will be taken to ensure that people get all the pension amounts they are entitled to. But it does not mention the need to overhaul the nation's pension system. In 2004, the government decided to raise the percentage of national tax money dedicated to the basic portion of pensions to 50 percent in fiscal 2009. Consumption tax revenues are generally regarded as an appropriate pension funding source. Yet the plan calls only for discussing tax reform this fall — after the Upper House election.
The 2006 plan adopted by then-Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's administration called for spending cuts of ¥11.4 trillion to ¥14.3 trillion in five years and an annual reduction of 1 percent to 3 percent in public works spending. The Abe Cabinet's plan does not set such numerical goals. It only says that maximum efforts will be made to cut spending in accordance with the 2006 plan. It also says that, in principle, funds for new spending must be balanced with cuts in other spending.
Given the overall tone of the plan, lawmakers of the ruling parties are likely to press the government to create special budgetary allowances. The absence of numerical spending-cut goals could lead to loss of financial discipline.
The Japan Times Weekly: June 30, 2007
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政府が2008年度予算作成の指針として発表した「骨太の方針2007」は焦点がはっきりしない。中央、地方の財政健全化、都市・農村間の格差の是正、人口の高齢化に悩まされる社会福祉制度の安定などの基本的課題に取り組む長期的戦略が必要である。
方針では、「加入者・受給者全員が本来受け取れるはずの年金を全額受け取れる」措置を取るとしているが、年金制度改革の必要性には触れていない。消費税が年金の最適な財源と考えられているが、方針は、参院選後の今秋に税制改正を議論することと記しているだけだ。
小泉政権が発表した前年の「骨太の方針」は5年間で11.4兆円〜14.3兆円の歳出削減と、年間1〜3％の公共投資削減の目標を盛り込んだが、安倍政権は数値目標を設定せず、削減に向け最大限の努力をすると記しているだけである。与党議員は、特別予算措置を要求するだろうが、歳出削減の数値目標がないので、財政的規律の崩壊につながる可能性がある。
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