Raul won't change Cuba
(From The Japan Times Feb. 26 issue)

ラウル・カストロはキューバを変えない

Fidel Castro, one of the world's longest tenured leaders, resigned in February. His decision to step down, long anticipated, opens a period of uncertainty for Cuba, but hopes for sweeping change are muted. Mr. Castro's brother, Raul, was voted to succeed him by Cuba's National Assembly Feb. 24. While the younger Castro is thought to be a reformer, there is little chance that he would undo his brother's socialist legacy. Yet Cuba has more options than before. The world should encourage its new leaders to make the right choices.

Like many revolutionaries, Mr. Fidel Castro came from a wealthy family. His father was an affluent sugar farmer, yet he still took to the hills to lead a ragtag rebel movement that overthrew dictator Fulgencio Batista on Jan. 1, 1959, ushering in an age of socialism that has persisted for nearly five decades.

In Mr. Castro's Cuba, there was free education and health care for all, raising literacy to unprecedented levels and ending hunger. Practicing socialist solidarity, Cuba provided assistance in the form of doctors and technical know-how to other developing countries.

Although revolutionary Cuba did not identify itself as a member of the Soviet bloc from the first, Mr. Castro's spirited defiance of the United States? won him backers among the left around the world. In April 1961, armed Cuban exiles trained by the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency unsuccessfully attempted to invade Cuba. Mr. Castro's defiance of the United States also brought the world to the brink of a nuclear confrontation in 1962 舒 one between the United States and the Soviet Union over missile bases being built by the Soviet Union in Cuba.

Mr. Castro used the United States as a foil to buttress his popular appeal. For those less enamored with his leadership, he made ample use of a secret police force and the fierce suppression of any form of dissent. Political opponents languish in jail and information is restricted. Mr. Castro and his followers blamed the U.S. embargo for the poverty in Cuba, but the truth is Mr. Castro's policies were the source of the hardship that dominates daily life in his country.

Mr. Castro has not appeared in public since intestinal surgery 19 months ago. His brother was named interim leader when his medical condition deteriorated, and most observers saw that time as a transition period to prepare for the handover. In fact, Mr. Castro's resignation letter to his people, published on the front page of the Communist Party newspaper, did not endorse his brother to succeed him. Yet Raul remains popular among the military, a key constituency in Cuba, and has successfully steered the country during his brother's convalescence.

Observers are banking on change from a new administration. Mr. Raul Castro is far less charismatic than his brother and most observers expect some form of committee rule. As a lifelong military man, Mr. Raul Castro is sensitive to bureaucratic efficiency. He is thought to favor economic reform: He is the author of liberalization measures taken in the aftermath of the collapse of the Soviet Union, when Cuba lost its primary patron, and comments during his 19 months as interim leader suggest that he will continue those efforts to open the economy.

Liberalization will have its limits, however. Economic difficulties in the 1990s forced Mr. Raul Castro to trim the size of the military. Many of his top soldiers were transformed into businessmen, and they now dominate the most lucrative parts of the economy. By one estimate, Mr. Castro and his colleagues control some 60 percent of the Cuban economy. Reform is unlikely to challenge their grip on these sectors.

Nor for that matter is political liberalization in the cards. There is no indication that Mr. Raul Castro is prepared to tolerate any more opposition than did his brother. Indeed, he has praised the Chinese model of economic development, which strictly separates the two fields. Authoritarianism, even if by committee, is likely to continue.

Nor is there much chance of a new opening to the United States. Opposition to Washington has been a rallying point for the Havana regime and provided a handy scapegoat for the hardships that dominate daily life. But those policies are more than a cover for economic incompetence: Both Castros and their colleagues have lived their lives in defiance of the United States and see it as an instrument to return an old, corrupt and discredited order.

Their revolution continues to burn brightly. And Mr. Fidel Castro has signaled that he may be handing over the presidency, but he is not giving up all his power. He will continue to exercise considerable influence behind the scenes. Despite a historic change in Cuba, there is much that will remain the same.

キューバのフィデル・カストロ国家評議会議長は2月に引退し、実弟のラウル・カストロが後任に選出された。ラウルは改革主義者といわれるが、従来路線は継承されるだろう。しかし、キューバの選択肢は以前より増えたといえる。

カストロ前議長率いるキューバは教育や医療を全国民に無料提供し、他の発展途上国にも医師派遣や技術支援の面でサポートを行ってきた。

前議長の強硬な反米姿勢は世界中の左派の間で支持者を生んだ。1962年のキューバ危機では、ソ連製ミサイルのキューバ配備をめぐり、米ソは核戦争勃発の瀬戸際までいった。

前議長は自分の人気を高めるため、米国との対立を利用した。反対者に対しては厳しい弾圧を加え、情報は制限された。自らの政策が国内の貧困の原因なのに、カストロ政権は貧困を米国の対キューバ禁輸措置のせいにした。

前議長は19ヵ月前の腸の手術以来、公に姿を見せておらず、弟が暫定的指導者となっていた。

ラウルは、カリスマ性では兄に遠く及ばないが、今後経済改革を進めていくと予想される。だが、経済の自由化は楽ではない。90年代に経済的困難のため軍を縮小したとき、軍人の一部が実業界に流れ、ラウル自身とともに経済の利権を握っているからだ。政治の自由化も難しい。ラウルは兄同様、反対者を許容しない構えをとっているので専制政治が続くと見られる。

対米関係も変化は期待できない。反米はキューバ政府の旗印であり、米国は日常生活の困苦欠乏の原因を転嫁できる便利な存在だ。また、長年反米を貫いてきたカストロ兄弟とその一派は、米国を旧秩序復活の手先とみなしている。

前議長は権限を全て譲渡したわけではない。歴史的変化が起きたにもかかわらず、キューバでは多くのものが旧態依然のままだろう。