U.S. military attacks in Pakistan could plunge Islamabad into chaos
(From The Japan Times Sept. 20 issue)

米軍のパキスタン攻撃で情勢悪化の可能性

In a sign of growing concern over the deteriorating situation in Afghanistan and a renewed commitment to kill or capture al-Qaida's top leadership, the United States has launched military strikes across the border into Pakistan. These attacks signal U.S. frustration with Pakistan's efforts to battle Islamic militants in the border regions. They also risk alienating Pakistan's military and undermining its civilian government.

Convinced that al-Qaida and remnants of the Taliban, which are leading the resistance to the government of President Hamid Karzai in Kabul, are operating from sanctuaries in the border areas of Pakistan, the United States has stepped up its attacks in those areas, with missile strikes from unmanned aircraft and raids by U.S. troops. The United States claims it is attacking Taliban leaders; Pakistan says civilians are among the casualties. Reportedly, Pakistan's military has ordered its troops to open fire on U.S. forces if they come across the border again.

The raids are an invasion of sovereignty and offend Pakistani sensitivities. Pakistani officials insist that they are doing all they can — more than 100,000 troops have been deployed to the region — and that the strikes fuel religious extremism in the country. The anger that is being unleashed and the failure of the government in Islamabad to prevent attacks by a so-called ally in the "war on terror" undermine the legitimacy of the government, and could be contributing to an Islamic fundamentalist backlash. This in a state with a nuclear arsenal.

The situation is further complicated by the transition back to civilian leadership in Islamabad. Former President Pervez Musharraf was forced to resign earlier this year and was replaced by Mr. Asif Ali Zardari, widower of Mrs. Benazir Bhutto, who was assassinated last year while campaigning for elections. Mr. Zardari is not a popular figure, and he must court the public and the military.

The cross-border raids make Mr. Zardari look weak and turn substantial portions of Pakistan's population against him: Islamic groups that back the Taliban, nationalists who consider the raids a violation of their sovereignty, and ordinary citizens who fear the attacks will trigger another backlash of militant violence within Pakistan.

The danger of course is that the U.S. need for action against the Taliban may force it to defer to the military. The United States cannot afford to ignore the institution that has the most experience combating Islamic forces. Yet there are real doubts about the ability of the military to find the militants on its own. Close coordination and cooperation are needed.

Here too exists the danger of undercutting Mr. Zardari. A military that feels it has its own relationship with the United States is a military that is too strong. Civilian authority in Pakistan must be strengthened. The United States must work through the government in Islamabad, even though doing so may be slow and frustrating.

Other countries, such as Japan, should help to strengthen civilian supremacy through economic development projects that build national capacity for governance and improve the lives of ordinary Pakistanis. This will build a foundation for civilian governance, which will in turn undermine the appeal of Islamic militancy in Pakistan.

米国は、イスラム過激派に対するパキスタンの手ぬるい取り締まりに不満を募らせ、パキスタン国境内を攻撃した。しかし、米軍の攻撃はパキスタン軍の反発を招き、パキスタンの民主政府を弱体化させかねない。

パキスタン国境付近は、アルカイダとタリバンの残党が潜伏しているとされる。米国はタリバン指導者を標的とした攻撃と主張するが、パキスタン政府は民間人が犠牲になっていると反発している。

今回の攻撃は主権の侵害だ。同盟国による自国内への攻撃をせき止められなかった失態は、パキスタン政府を弱体化させ、イスラム原理主義を再熱させかねない。

今年初め、辞任に追いやられたムシャラフ大統領に代わって、昨年末に暗殺された故ブット元首相の夫のザルダリ氏が大統領に就任した。しかし、ザルダリ氏は国民にも軍部にも人気がない。米軍の越境攻撃は、タリバンを支持するイスラムグループや国粋主義者、一般市民までも、反ザルダリ政権へと向かわせるものだ。

米国は、長年イスラム勢力と闘ってきたパキスタン軍の経験を無視できない。一方、パキスタン軍が単独で過激派を取り締まれるとは考えられない。両者の協力が必要不可欠だ。

パキスタン民主政府は強化されなければならない。米国は政府を通して軍部の協力を求めていかなければならない。

日本を含む諸外国は、経済的にパキスタン民主政府を支持するべきだ。経済開発計画は、政府の統治能力の確立と、一般市民の生活向上に役立つ。パキスタン国内のイスラム過激派支持を衰えさせ、文民統治の礎となるだろう。