Opinion The economy is us By Scott T. Hards	フレームで見る  英文をプリントする  脚注をプリントする
日本経済は、国民次第 ここ数年、日本経済が危ないと騒がれているが、 その手の心配にはお門違いのものが多い。 また、政府の無策を責める声も高いが、 その非難もお門違いである。

If all the predictions about Japan's economy over the past couple of years had come true, this island nation would have sunk under the waves of the Pacific ages ago. Everything is a crisis, everything is about to collapse, everything is at its worst level ever.... The stream of bad economic news never seems to end. Sure, there have been some bumps, but why are we, for the most part, still high and dry. People are getting all worried about the wrong things.

Look at the talk about the stock market. Recently it hit its lowest level in nearly 20 years. Some observers were actually saying things like if the market falls any lower, Japan's financial system could collapse. But why? In a country where only 8 percent of the public even invests in stocks, why are stock prices important at all?

For the most part, stock prices move because of the economy, not the other way around. This important truth seems to have been forgotten by many here, and they continue to cling to the notion that the economy will get better if stock prices go up, and not vice versa. Since 92 percent of the public doesn't even own stock, market jumps don't make most people feel richer or poorer, limiting the impact on consumer spending (this situation is quite different in the United States where nearly 50 percent of people invest).

Consider, too, that most of the hand-wringing is done over short-term price movements, which investors (as distinguished from speculators) shouldn't even pay any attention to. Just listen to a typical stock market report here: You'll be hard-pressed to find one that doesn't cite the New York market as the main reason for the Japanese market's moves. The Nikkei is just playing "follow the leader," and factors like that have little or nothing to do with Japanese companies' future earning prospects.

What about unemployment? The media is always reminding us here that it's at or near the "worst level ever since the war," unnecessarily adding to a sense of crisis. But frankly, at just over 5 percent, Japan has a long way to go before it will find much sympathy internationally! Double-digit unemployment is frequently seen in Europe and North America. In the early 1980s, my hometown of Flint, Mich., saw unemployment of 25 percent! Yet somehow, the city survived.

Amid these misplaced concerns, there is misplaced blame. Many point their fingers at the government and demand to know what Koizumi and Takenaka are going to do to boost things, as if a few policymakers could control the course of the entire economy of a nation of 126 million people! That's the key here: the understanding that the economy is far too big for the government to significantly influence. Their biggest tools - interest rates and public spending - have already been exploited to their limits. It is us, especially those of us with large bank account balances and no spending plans, that are crushing the economy here, not the government, and not bad loans.

The best part of all is that the solution to this problem is remarkably simple, and something we can all help: Just head to your favorite store and give your credit card a good workout!

Shukan ST: Nov. 8, 2002

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