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U.S. Campus Life

Economy sputters

By Masako Yamada


景気後退の影響

アメリカの景気後退で影響を受けるのは、株を持つお金持ちばかりではありません。少額ですが、家を購入するための資金を貯めるために投資信託に投資している雅子さん。彼女の場合は、おとなしく景気の回復を待っていれば何とかしのげそうですが、友人の中には、はやりの株に投資し、大損した人もいます。

I was reading this week's Sunday New York Times, and I was struck by the number of articles that mentioned the recent lifestyle changes of Americans due to the downturn of the economy. Luxury restaurants are not doing as well. Corporate recruiters are losing their jobs because companies are no longer hiring. Silicon Valley parties which used to be lavish productions with free-flowing drinks now charge admission and are by "special invitation only."

It's not as if this downturn has been sudden. I think most people knew that astronomical surge in Internet and technology stocks in the late '90s never made much economic sense, so when stock prices began sliding last year, I don't think people were necessarily surprised. The fourth quarter of 2000 was a very difficult one for the stock market, but I think people were still not in a glum or panicky mood.

The thing is, the first quarter of 2001 has not been an improvement, and now I think everybody is starting to feel, or fear, the pinch. Even the lucky companies have started to lay people off in large numbers. The more unlucky companies have gone out of business. Every day, the media features new articles on these tough times, and how it affects both businesses and consumers.

I don't dine in luxury restaurants, I don't fear losing my job and I've never been invited to any dot-com parties. I've had more-or-less the same income for the past five years. I know this won't change.

However, even I have felt the effects of the souring economy. This is mostly because I invest most of my free money in mutual funds. It is not a lot of money, but it's all I have. This is the money I will turn to when I decide to buy a home. I also have an account for my retirement funds.

Stock market crashes are not just the business of the rich and famous. Many people with low to moderate incomes also invest in the stock market. It is understandable that those with low incomes are precisely those who hope for high stock market returns.

The rich certainly lose more when the stock market goes down — witness all those paper millionaires who are left with just paper — but their capability to earn money remains. On the other hand, low-income workers who put most of their savings into stocks can be severely hurt by market downturns, and some might never recover.

Although it's very disappointing to see one's hard-earned money disappear, I have not taken any money out of the stock market by selling shares. "Buy low, sell high" is the stock market mantra, and this is exactly the wrong time to sell. My losses haven't been that great, and I know that the market is resilient enough to recover that degree of loss.

My friends who have invested in trendy companies have suffered tremendously, since many companies have seen their stock prices go down to less than a 10th of their peak price. Those companies might go bankrupt, and their money may be gone for good. However, because I've always bought very diverse mutual funds, I've been relatively unaffected.

And I've been relatively calm. I've seen my stocks behave in mysterious ways before, but the unmistakable trend over many years has been for them to go up.

Some of my friends still have as much as 15 percent of their monthly income deducted from their paychecks and put into company-sponsored retirement accounts. The money in those accounts usually goes into stocks.

On average, the stock market has gone up 8-10 percent a year since the Great Depression. I think many Americans still believe in the underlying strength of the stock market.

My tax return forms for the year 2000 are due in the middle of April, and I know that I will be reporting capital losses. The silver lining is that I can claim a tax exemption. Maybe I'll even get a tax refund check in the mail . . . and maybe I can use this money to invest in more stocks.


Shukan ST: April 13, 2001

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