Letter from Boston The Y2k Problem By MASAKO YAMADA	フレームで見る  英文をプリントする  脚注をプリントする
2000年問題 ミレニアムのお正月にどう備えるか？　雅子さんは最近、これで悩んでいます。といってもパーティーを計画しているわけではありません。Y2K、つまり2000年問題が心配なのです。本当にコンピューターは誤作動を起こしてしまうのでしょうか。まさかのときに備えて、どんな準備をすればいいのでしょうか…。

For about a year now, I've been making halfhearted plans for the New Year. No, I haven't been thinking of which cocktail parties to go to, or which fancy champagnes to buy. I've been thinking about what kind of candles, batteries and canned food I should hoard in my cupboard, and whether I should keep records of all of my financial dealings. I've even thought about taking out some emergency cash and hiding it underneath my mattress.

These aren't the more glamorous thoughts one could have in the face of the dawn of a new millennium, but I think they are thoughts that loom in the minds of many. I can't seem to get away from news articles, advertisements and warnings about the overhyped, but nonetheless trendy, "Y2K problem."

The problem is that many old computers will not be able to handle the date change from 1999 to 2000. Since we are inevitably dependent on computers, the big question is whether this will lead to a major disruption in daily life.

I wouldn't mind eating canned beans in a dark room for a while, but what if the Y2K problem causes planes to fall, hospital equipment to stall and bank re cords to disappear? Not only could these problems be dangerous and inconvenient on their own, they could also cause even scarier secondary problems, such as looting and mass hysteria.

Some of the most pessimistic of the Y2K prophets — often computer programmers who understand the potential seriousness of the problem — have built well-stocked bunkers in the middle of nowhere. And these folks plan on keeping their forts well-guarded with a self-styled militia.

I see notices almost every day about how some computer system, computer program or piece of hardware is "Y2K compliant." Even products that are the most unlikely to fail often have the Y2K compliant stamp on them. I think many institutions get questions from their customers. And they want to be able to say that they are ready for Y2K in order to keep customers happy.

On the other hand, I know that other companies are hesitant to promise Y2K compliance because they don't want to promise anything they are not sure of. If they do, they may be sued by customers if anything goes wrong on the big day.

The most frustrating part of all of this is that people can't really pin down how severe the problems will be. Even in the past year, the tone of news coverage has fluctuated between apocalyptic and complacent. The average consumer is obviously swayed by the media, and it can be very confusing to get these mixed messages. I think most people simply don't know what to think of the whole deal.

Y2K insurance is a hot Wall Street commodity that has had its ups and downs according to the popular perception of the dangers. It's true that computer consultants who convert old programs to Y2K compliant versions have been doing very well, but also it seems that many, many companies have chosen not to bother with the time and expense of updating their programs.

I think the common perception now is that there might be some glitches here and there, but that nothing too terrible will occur. I hope this truly will be the case. I hope even more that the media hype remains subdued so that people will not panic unnecessarily before any problems begin.

I must admit my own emergency plans have more or less died away lately. I've bought some batteries on sale and I think I might keep some loaves of bread around in case the power fails, but I certainly have not stayed up nights pondering the prospect of a disaster. I think I'll stay away from airplanes, but I'm even starting to think of the kinds of celebratory things I'd like to do.

One thing I find funny is that the Japanese seem to have embraced the possibility of a Nostradamus doomsday, but not a Y2K doomsday. Considering that computer problems are real and Japan is very dependent on technology, I think that a Y2K doomsday is much more likely. Although perhaps the Y2K disaster is what Nostradamus was talking about all along * perhaps he simply got the date wrong.

Shukan ST: Dec. 3, 1999

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