Inside U.K. Upcoming British Elections Put Ruling Party To the Test By STEVE HILL	フレームで見る  英文をプリントする  脚注をプリントする
保守党に試練の英総選挙 5月1日に行なわれるイギリスの総選挙の行方に世界の注目が集まっている。下馬評ではトニー・ブレア党首率いる労働党が、ジョン・メージャー首相の保守党を大きくリードしている。議員のスキャンダルが相次いで明るみに出ている保守党にとって、今回は文字どおり試練の選挙となりそうだ。

Tony Blair will celebrate his 44th birthday May 6, probably with a party at No. 10 Downing Street ― the Prime Minister's official residence in London.

parliamentary election takes place in the United Kingdom May 1 and the head of the Labor Party is the clear favorite to become his country's new leader.

Recent opinion poll figures, commissioned by a national newspaper, show that the ruling Conservatives, led by John Major, trail their biggest rivals by 26 percentage points. The survey also reveals that 54 percent of the population is prepared to vote for Blair's party, compared to only 28 percent for the Conservatives and just 12.5 percent for the minority Liberal-Democrat Party.

If these figures are repeated in the national election, Blair's party will have a majority in the House of Commons of 289 seats ― one of the biggest margins recorded this century.

Mr. Blair, however, is taking nothing for granted. He clearly can remember the last election, in 1992, when Labor felt confident it was about to overthrow Major's government but suffered a morale-crushing defeat.

It is extremely unlikely, however, that Major will survive this time. He has been prime minister since the autocratic Margaret Thatcher was forced to resign more than six years ago, but in recent times has struggled to hold his divided party together.

A series of scandals involving Conservative MPs has also proved damaging. Only a month before the election, Sir Michael Birst, the chairman of the Scottish branch of the party, resigned after being questioned by Conservative officers about allegations of a gay affair. That news broke on the same day that a national newspaper reported a backbench MP had allegedly been cavorting with a 17-year-old night club hostess.

Meanwhile, another MP has resisted pressure to resign despite being embroiled in corruption allegations. The publicity has done little to help Major, who has been keen to focus on issues such as falling unemployment and economic growth.

Instead, he has been forced to deal constantly with allegations of sleaze, detracting from what he feels are more pressing issues for voters.

Mr. Major is widely regarded as a decent, honorable man but he has found it hard to shake off his "grey" image, of being rather unimaginative and uninspiring.

Blair, on the other hand, is seen as youthful, energetic and fresh. An Oxford University graduate, and former barrister, he has been an MP for 14 years and Labor leader since 1994. He is married to Cherie, a barrister, and the couple have two sons, aged 12 and 10, and an eight-year-old daughter.

By Japanese standards, Blair is an extremely young political leader and his youth has clearly helped his prospects. He certainly appeals to Ben Lewis, an 18-year-old student who lives near the southwestern English city of Bristol.

He was born under a Conservative, or Tory, government in 1979 and has lived his whole life under the rule of the Tories, but is now old enough to vote for the first time.

"I'll probably vote Labor or Liberal-Democrat, but definitely not Conservative," he said. "Blair seems to be very vibrant and has plenty of ideas. He's a much more interesting person than John Major and would make a good Prime Minister."

Ben feels that Mr. Blair's age is an important factor. "A lot of the Tories seem to be very old and don't appeal to me very much. It's better, from my point of view as a young person, to have a young Prime Minister."

Ben's friend John Ashman is also 18 and he, too, will be voting for the first time although he feels that age is not an important consideration when it comes to choosing a national leader.

"Tony Blair probably appeals to more younger people, but I think John Major is older and wiser," he said. "The Tories have been in power for a long time and haven't done too badly. Everything seems to be going OK."

John believes that one of the important differences between the two main parties is their attitude toward Britain's relationship with the rest of Europe.

"I don't think Britain should join the single European currency. I believe that the Tories are right to wait and see what happens. Labor are too keen to go into Europe," he said.

So there we have it ― two opinions which neatly sum up the choice facing many British voters.

Do we stay with the experience of the Conservative Party, which has ruled for the last 18 years, or is it time for a change and a new approach with the Labor Party?

The result will be known May 2.

Shukan ST: April 18, 1997

(C) All rights reserved